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Photovoltaic power generation construction releases positive signal

Photovoltaic power generation construction releases positive signal

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  • Time of issue:2020-04-09
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[概述]On March 10, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Matters Related to the Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2020" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") to make the deadline for the total budget of this year, the subsidy auction model, and the 2020 subsidy auction project Arrangements for the date and deadline for the declaration of new batches of parity online projects in 2020. Compared with the time when the notice was issued on May 30 last year, this year's policy is released more than February earlier.

Photovoltaic power generation construction releases positive signal

[概述]On March 10, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Matters Related to the Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2020" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") to make the deadline for the total budget of this year, the subsidy auction model, and the 2020 subsidy auction project Arrangements for the date and deadline for the declaration of new batches of parity online projects in 2020. Compared with the time when the notice was issued on May 30 last year, this year's policy is released more than February earlier.

  • Categories:Company news
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  • Time of issue:2020-04-09
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On March 10, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Matters Related to the Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2020" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") to make the deadline for the total budget of this year, the subsidy auction model, and the 2020 subsidy auction project Arrangements for the date and deadline for the declaration of new batches of parity online projects in 2020. Compared with the time when the notice was issued on May 30 last year, this year's policy is released more than February earlier.
According to the "Notice", the total amount of subsidy budget for the new annual photovoltaic power generation projects in 2020 is 1.5 billion yuan, which is nearly half that of the 3 billion yuan subsidy in 2019. Looking specifically at the distribution, 500 million yuan of the 1.5 billion yuan subsidy budget will be used for household photovoltaics, and bidding subsidy projects including centralized photovoltaic power stations and industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic projects will be organized according to the total 1 billion yuan subsidy. . The general idea, project management, and competitive allocation methods of competitive allocation work are still implemented according to the 2019 model.
Affected by the New Coronary Pneumonia, the photovoltaic industry association and some enterprises' previous requests to "appropriately extend the grid connection time node and project declaration node" have also been responded to in the "Notice".
According to the "Notice", the deadline for the declaration of 2020 subsidized bidding projects is June 15th, and the deadline for the declaration of new batches of parity online projects is April 30th. For the unfinished 2019 subsidized bidding projects, the government will Affect the timely release of the extension policy.
Regarding the support signal released by the "Notice," Liu Shuai, an analyst at UBS Securities Utilities and the New Energy / Environmental Protection Industry, pointed out that the policy was generally in line with expectations and revealed a signal of government support. UBS expects positive impacts to include: the reporting period of the project has been extended by one and a half months compared to the consultation draft. The reporting period for subsidy projects this year is three months, which is significantly better than the one-month reporting period last year. The timing of the project's grid connection in 2019 is expected to be delayed, which will help this part of the installation to be fully completed.
Liu Shuai said: "Last year's filing time resulted in a subsidy quota of 3 billion yuan only using 2.45 billion yuan, and this year's quota is expected to be fully utilized." According to the subsidy arrangement for new photovoltaic projects in 2019, the total budget is 3 billion yuan Of which, 750 million yuan was used for household photovoltaics; 2.25 billion yuan was used to subsidize bidding projects.
In addition, if the latest round of solicitations for photovoltaic power prices is higher than the previous version, the market's willingness to invest in photovoltaic power plants is also expected to increase.
Judging from the current situation, the downside risks brought by the epidemic to the photovoltaic industry are limited. Based on the introduction of policies, UBS expects that the domestic installed photovoltaic capacity will reach over 40GW this year. This scale is 33% higher than last year. Among them, 20GW is a stock project, including 13GW for subsidized projects in 2019, 7GW for UHV equipment and photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects. Among the 20GW new projects, UBS expects that household distributed will account for 6GW, and the 2020 subsidy bidding project will be completed by 10GW. A parity Internet project of 4GW.
Some photovoltaic companies have also made judgments on the installed photovoltaic capacity of this year. Wang Yingge, assistant to chairman of Longji Leye, said at the video meeting of PGO photovoltaic industry situation exchange and analysis on March 11th that it is expected that the domestic market will be able to maintain the scale of 40GW this year. The overall demand will be delayed by about 2 months. The result of the delay is that the third quarter will be better than the same period in previous years, and it can reach 10 to 12GW of installed capacity.
Wang Yingge said that after the announcement, many projects resumed at full capacity. Both the bidding projects left over from last year and the newly declared projects this year will accelerate, and everyone hopes to be connected to the network as soon as possible. The household part is expected to usher in the second quarter.
Different from the positive prediction of the domestic market, the situation of overseas markets this year is difficult to estimate. Wang Yingge said that from a practical point of view, the current corporate orders have not been affected. However, the spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic overseas has greatly affected these markets. "Italy was originally a GW-level market that is expected to add better this year, and distributed will account for a larger proportion, so it will be greatly affected."According to Huang Haiyan, vice president of Zhejiang Zhengtai New Energy Development Co., Ltd., the original SPE predicted that the EU's new photovoltaic installations will reach 21GW in 2020, but for Italy, which is currently the most affected by the European epidemic, measures to block the country will lead to its The demand in the photovoltaic market has slowed down, and was originally expected to increase by more than 1GW. If the epidemic cannot be effectively controlled, this number will be greatly reduced.
Overall, based on policy analysis and feedback from major photovoltaic module factories, considering the impact of the epidemic, UBS estimates that global demand is still expected to reach 130-140GW in 2020, an increase of 8-17% year-on-year.

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Time of issue:2020-04-09 00:00:00

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