At present, China's anti-epidemic prevention and control work has made some progress, and the impact of the epidemic on domestic industries and macroeconomics is also expected to be controlled in the first quarter. However, on a global scale, the spread of the new coronavirus is making other regions such as Europe and the United States become the new epicenter of the epidemic, and there are still many uncertainties about the impact on the global economy. As of March 30, the cumulative number of overseas diagnoses has reached 640,270, an increase of 39,699 people from the previous day.
For the energy industry with a higher degree of internationalization, the fluctuations in the international market also have a greater impact on the development of domestic industries, especially in the photovoltaic industry with high exports and the oil field with high external dependence. The epidemic has entered the "second half", and the international market's danger to China's industry will be a topic that cannot be ignored in the energy field in the short term.
High proportion of overseas markets
The photovoltaic industry may face shocks
According to the data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, from January to February this year, the export scale of China's solar cells increased substantially year-on-year, and the export scale of modules remained the same year-on-year. Among them, in January, the cell export scale was 1078MW, up 132.7% year-on-year, the module export scale was 5486MW, up 3.0% year-on-year; in February, the cell export scale was 805MW, up 115.3% year-on-year, and the module export scale was 3879MW, down 0.5% year-on-year. However, judging from the month-on-month growth rate of exports, both battery cells and components have dropped significantly. The photovoltaic industry association predicts that as the overseas epidemic intensifies, its impact will be more apparent in the export situation in March.
China is the world's largest manufacturer and exporter of photovoltaic products. Since 2017, thanks to the continuous decline in the cost of photovoltaic power generation and the continuous emergence of emerging markets, the proportion of China's photovoltaic module exports has increased steadily. According to the data of "2019 Review of China's Photovoltaic Industry and Outlook for 2020", in 2019, China's module exports reached 66.6GW, accounting for about 67.5% of the total domestic module output, an increase of 18.2 percentage points year-on-year. Around 70-80%.
For the photovoltaic industry whose export share has always been high, the spread of overseas epidemics will inevitably have a big impact. According to IHS Markit, a global information provider, under the influence of the new crown epidemic, the new installed capacity in 2020 will be 120-140GW, a 10% reduction from previous forecasts.
"According to the development process of foreign epidemic situation, if effective control cannot be carried out, 70% of China's photovoltaic industry that depends on exports will be affected greatly." Zhou Yuan, Secretary General of PGO Photovoltaic Green Ecological Cooperation Organization, said that the impact of overseas epidemic on photovoltaic projects is mainly This is reflected in the reduction or slowdown of downstream demand, as well as project advancement, financing, logistics and other links.
However, due to the final impact of the overseas epidemic situation is still unclear, and some institutions are still optimistic about the market expectations for this year. PVInfolink believes that the current European market is relatively pessimistic and demand is expected to decline, but large-scale power stations in the United States are less affected. Project delays are not expected to exceed one quarter. The third and fourth quarters are the peak season in the United States. During this period, it rebounded.
The world's largest importer of crude oil
Chinese demand affects the international market"As new coronaviruses spread around the world, travel and wider economic activities are restricted, and global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020." Recently, the latest oil report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that under the influence of the epidemic Due to the contraction of the Chinese market, which accounts for more than 80% of global oil demand growth in 2019, and major disruptions in tourism and trade, this year's oil demand will usher in the first decline since 2009.
The International Energy Agency estimates that the global oil demand in 2020 will be 99.9 million barrels per day, a decrease of approximately 90,000 barrels from 2019. Compared with the February 2020 global oil demand growth forecast of 825,000 barrels, it has been significantly reduced. Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency, said: "The Coronavirus crisis is affecting a wide range of energy markets, including coal, natural gas and renewable energy, but its impact on the oil market is particularly severe because it is preventing people and The flow of goods has dealt a heavy blow to the demand for transportation fuel. "The International Energy Agency pointed out that at the end of the first quarter, the epidemic was controlled in China, but spread to many countries such as Iran, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, the United States and Europe. China, but the demand for the aviation industry will continue to be affected by the shrinking global air travel. As the epidemic spreads globally, the crude oil market will face a severe impact.
The house leaks are falling into the rain at night. While the new crown virus is raging and the "OPEC + meeting" broke up early in the month, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia for the market has cast a shadow on the already fragile oil market. International oil prices There was an "epic plunge." On March 18, the lowest WTI crude oil price fell to US $ 20.37 a barrel, which was the lowest oil price since the lowest US $ 18.02 / barrel in 2002.
Although low oil prices have caused panic to the global economy and also impacted domestic oil production and exploration, as a net oil importer, the decline in oil prices has many opportunities and benefits for China. From the industry's point of view, the oil refining and petrochemical sector located downstream of the petroleum industry chain can take advantage of the sluggish oil prices to sweep goods overseas, balance the losses of the upstream exploration sector, and can also supplement the national strategic oil and gas reserves. In addition, the reduction in the cost price of the refined oil and chemical raw material production industry will drive the reduction of domestic refined oil prices and commodity costs.
Impact or short-term
The general trend of energy transformation remains unchangedFrom the manufacture of photovoltaic and other new energy equipment to the import of oil and natural gas and other resources, China's energy sector plays an increasingly important role in the international market, and is increasingly affected by the overseas supply and demand pattern. However, according to industry judgment, the impact of the epidemic may be short-term. In the long run, energy development and reform trends will not change.
In fact, for domestic practitioners, the fluctuations in the overseas market of the photovoltaic industry and the sharp decline in international oil prices are not new. Since 2011, due to the impact of European and American "double anti", the proportion of China's photovoltaic module exports has dropped from as high as 78% in 2012 to about 40% in 2016. The export volume of modules has also maintained a scale of about 20GW for many years; Later, China's oil industry also suffered setbacks and its performance declined. However, in the face of changes in the international market, domestic industries can finally deal with it calmly, designed for crisis.
Regarding the photovoltaic field, the industry generally believes that by 2020, global photovoltaic desubsidy will become the norm. Driven by the rapid development of the industrial chain and the improvement of technology, the global photovoltaic project LCOE power cost will become increasingly obvious, and its alternative to traditional energy The trend will gradually emerge.
For the oil industry, according to the “Medium-Term Outlook” published by the International Energy Agency, after the end of the global epidemic, oil demand is expected to rebound sharply in 2021. From 2019 to 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of slightly below 1 million barrels per day. At the same time, under the pressure of energy transformation, the "energy attributes" of petroleum will be further weakened, and more will be turned to "non-fuel uses".
"The impact of new coronaviruses on the oil market may be temporary, but the long-term challenges facing global suppliers will not disappear." Fatih Birol said: "The oil industry needs to show that they can not only provide the economically dependent Energy, but also to provide the emission reduction solutions needed to address climate challenges. "